Harper and Trout Already Elite Players - Gary Armida's Blog

Arena Blog Dynasty Scores Sign Up ☰

Gary Armida's Blog

Harper and Trout Already Elite Players Stuck

Posted on June 13, 2012 at 06:44 AM.

(7)

We�ve gotten to the point when talking about baseball that every single conversation now evidently has to have the phrase, �small sample size�. At first, the phrase was a necessity as many analysts would look at some very limited statistic and make grand conclusions. But, as the analysis of the game has gotten smarter, the concept of looking at a larger sample size to draw more meaningful conclusions is widely known. But, like everything else, beliefs such as small sample size can go too far. Advanced analytics are wonderful and have made analyzing baseball much more thorough and, in most cases, more enjoyable. But, this season has shown the downside.

Two of the season�s best stories are steeped heavily in small sample size. The Washington Nationals� Bryce Harper and the Los Angeles Angels� Mike Trout are just 19 and 20 years old, respectively. Neither made the Opening Day roster, but both were called up within days of each other. Since their 2012 debut, the two have been a nightly highlight film. Both are doing historic things at their age. No 19 year old has started like Harper. No 20 year old has started like Trout. It is time to put away the sample size phrase and just take them for what they are: two of the best players in baseball.

Baseball history is littered with players who came to the Big Leagues and looked as if they were going to be the next Babe Ruth. Kevin Maas, Bob Hamelin, Mark Fidrych, Joe Charboneau and Pat Listach showed initial promise, even winning some awards, but they were flawed players. Sample size was born out of players like them. But, Trout and Harper look and feel different. They are extraordinary talents who are succeeding at such a young age. And, they are making a major impact. One step further: they are already in the elite category of players.

Bryce Harper�s story is well known. He dropped out of high school to take his GED in order to play college baseball sooner. After dominating Junior College, Harper was the first pick in the 2010 draft. After one Minor League season, Harper was hopeful to make the Nationals out of Spring Training. Manager Davey Johnson sent him down saying that he wanted to be sure that the next time Harper is with the Big League club, he won�t be leaving.

That day came on April 28th as Harper was brought up to replace injured third baseman Ryan Zimmerman�s bat in the lineup. Since his debut, Harper has continued to amaze not only with his production, but with the way he carries himself, his hustle on the field, and his respect for the veteran players. Harper is hitting .307/.390/.553 with 8 doubles, 4 triples, 7 homeruns, 19 RBI, 4 stolen bases, 20 walks, and 29 strikeouts in 40 games. Keep in mind that Alex Rodriguez hit just .232/.264/.408 in 48 games as a 19 year old. Ken Griffey Jr. hit .264/.329/.420 in 127 games at the same age. Mickey Mantle hit .267/.349/.443 in 96 games.

In other words, Harper is on an historic pace. He�s already had a spectacular beginning. His initial success along with his elite skills are making his at bats must watch events. Few players in today�s game command must watch status.

The only young player outproducing Harper is the Angels� phenom Mike Trout. Trout made his Major League debut last season as a 19 year old. While his statistics didn�t prove phenom status, in very limited playing time, he showed, in glimpses, just how impactful he could be on the field. Trout also made his 2012 debut on April 28th. After a slow start, Trout got his legs under him. Incredibly, he is hitting .346/.406/.552 with 10 doubles, 3 triples, 6 homeruns, 26 RBI, 15 stolen bases, 17 walks, and 36 strikeouts through 41 games. His 15 stolen bases lead the American League.

Alex Rodriguez�s age 20 season? He hit .358/.414/.631 with 36 homeruns. Ken Griffey Jr. hit .300/.366/.488 with 22 homeruns as a 20 year old. Mickey Mantle hit .311/.394/.530 with with 23 homeruns. Mike Trout looks like he is making a similar jump in production after dipping his toes in the Major League water last season as a 19 year old.

While their hitting justifiably gets most of the attention, both have proven to be solid on defense. Harper is just in his second year as an outfielder. He was a catcher through his brief college and high school career. Most defensive metrics rank Harper close to being a plus outfielder. His UZR is in the negative in both center and right field, but he does have a strong throwing arm. His range should improve as he learns the position. Trout, on the other hand, is a superior defender. A natural centerfielder, he is ranked at the top in most every defensive metric. His 4.4 UZR in centerfield illustrates his defensive value.

Since Harper�s arrival, the Nationals are 23-17. Considering all of the injuries, Harper has been quite valuable to them as they stay atop the tough National League East division. Thus far, Harper is a 1.3 WAR player. Trout�s arrival coincided with the Angels surge back towards the top of the AL West standings. Since April 28th, the Angels are 25-16, a far cry from their 6-14 record before they promoted him. All of the credit cannot go to Trout as one player rarely makes that big of a difference. The Angels bullpen was bolstered and performing better. Albert Pujols is swinging much better. But, because of his elite defense and his offensive production, Trout is already a 3.2 WAR player, an astounding total for a 20 year old. His impact on the Angels is significant by WAR standards. Trout ranks fifth in the Major Leagues in WAR. That is incredible. It is historic.

That doesn�t mean that both players don�t have some potential flaws. Neither are very patient right now, swinging at slightly more pitches than the norm. Harper does walk at an 11.6 percent rate, which is an incredible total. His BABIP is at an elevated .339, a bit higher than the Major League average of .315. A little regression can be expected. But, his .247 ISO is something that is incredible considering that he ranks 20th in all of Baseball. He�s 19 and already showing elite power. Trout hasn�t shown as much patience, walking at an 8.8 percent rate, which is very close to the league average. As a leadoff hitter and as the league begins to pitch him more carefully, that will have to improve. His BABIP is an incredible .411, a mark that is unsustainable. There has to be some regression. His .227 ISO is also impressive considering he is a leadoff hitter and he would rank in the top 30 in Baseball.
We are watching two very significant seasons. Harper and Trout are putting together two historic seasons. They are already two of the best in the League. They are both deserving All-Stars. They should both be in Kansas City this July. They both belong there, they would generate excitement, and it would be Baseball�s ultimate showcase of its two youngest stars. They both missed the first month of the season, but since their call up, they have been two of Baseball�s biggest stars. The All-Star game should be a foregone conclusion.

It is time to embrace each as a star rather than hide behind sample size arguments. Yes, their sample size is small, but their talent and skills can allow the sample size to be ignored. They are not Bob Hamelin or Kevin Maas. They are superior talents who have lapped most of the field at a very early age. Harper�s production as a 19 year old is historic. Trout�s production and improvement as a 20 year is equally as good. Baseball is looking at its two biggest stars for the next decade or so. These two will capture us just like Pujols did in his early 20�s, just like Rodriguez, and Griffey did before him.

As far as who is better, that is truly subjective. Both are elite talents. Trout�s defensive abilities give him an edge now as their offensive production is similar. One should expect Harper to improve as he gets more comfortable in the outfield. Both the Nationals and Angels have a young franchise player in place along with their other talent. Harper and Trout are in excellent positions as they are surrounded by good players in their respective lineups. Harper has Ryan Zimmerman while Trout has Albert Pujols. The veterans will allow the two youngsters time to learn and time to evolve before having to lead the team.

Bryce Harper and Mike Trout are two of the game�s best players, even if they haven�t been in the big leagues two full months yet. Sometimes, you just have to go with what you see. They are two elite and exciting talents.

Comments

# 1 marginwalker12 @ Jun 13

Harper does not respect the game, nor does he respect vetern players. Blowing kisses at opposing players? His reported sense of entitlement? Harper has been nothing shy about his love for the Yankees. So if Nat fans thing they have a cornerstone, they're sadly mistaken. He'll spend a maximum 6 years in their uniform, then head to the Bronx.

# 2 Gary Armida @ Jun 13

@marginwalker12: Those were the reports in the Minor Leagues, but from every account--from beat writers to players to coaches--he's done nothing since his call up. His reverence at Fenway was outstanding for a guy who is 19. Whether or not he goes to the Yankees depends on how much the Nats want to pay him.

# 3 Gary Armida @ Jun 13

@MSUboy11 I agree with you. If I had to pick between the two, I pick Trout because of his all around game. Harper will be the more powerful, but Trout would be my guy too.

# 4 mikehi619 @ Jun 13

Margin the kiss thing was deserved at least i have no problem with it . The opposing pitcher all game was owning the suns and was very vocal and used many body motions to let everyone kno.

# 5 JWaLL @ Jun 13

margin, whether he goes to the yankees or not depends on how good they r sand how good the Nats are. If the Nats are coming off 2 world series and he had 2 MVP's, i say he stays. Sure, he grew up a yankees fan and continues to stay a fan. He loves the big stage (if you havnt noticed) but lets not jump to conclusions that are 6 years down the road.